The Blue Jays swept the Mariners over the weekend, and now Cleveland is next.
Seattle has underachieved more than any team in baseball this season, even more than Toronto. Both clubs are capable of getting hot at exactly the wrong time for everyone else chasing that wild-card spot.
The sweep pulled Toronto within a game and a half of the Guardians for the final AL wild-card berth.
Cleveland sits at 69-68, with the Orioles at 68-69 wedged between the two clubs in the standings.
Toronto gets an off day Monday before opening a three-game series in Cleveland, a team that's won eight of its last 10 games.
The Blue Jays have won three straight themselves, setting up a series between two clubs both playing their best baseball right now.
Cleveland holds the pitching edge Tuesday, sending ace Gavin Williams against Spencer Arrighetti. Williams is 12-7 with a 3.98 ERA and 204 strikeouts over 156 innings.
Why the rotation depth is the real concern here
Dylan Cease faces Joey Cantillo Wednesday, followed by Jose Soriano on Thursday against a starter still to be named.
Cleveland is the only team over .500 remaining on Toronto's schedule, which makes this series a genuine measuring stick.
Winning it matters more than any individual game. Sweeping every remaining series isn't realistic, but taking each one is the actual path here.
If Toronto wins every series left, that's a 16-8 finish and an 84-78 record, likely enough for October. Getting to 82 or 83 wins would still give the Blue Jays a real shot.
The bigger concern sits behind Cease and Soriano. Scherzer's shutout gem Sunday looked like vintage Max, but trusting that version to show up every fifth day is another matter entirely.
Arrighetti's issues trace to inexperience and health rather than age, a different kind of uncertainty in that same rotation spot.
The final rotation slot remains a bullpen day, asking an already overworked relief corps to cover length. Four Blue Jays relievers rank among the 17 pitchers in baseball with 62 or more appearances this season.
Offense needs to carry more of the load too. Brett Bateman, Nathan Lukes, George Springer, and Alejandro Kirk have all contributed lately, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remains missing from that list.
It's hard to picture a 14-10 or better finish without Guerrero finding his way out of this slump. Short of that, Toronto needs help from every other team in the race stumbling too.
Can the Blue Jays win this pivotal series in Cleveland without Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finding his swing?
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